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Scenario is not flawed with respect to how many kids from MA play D1 - about 25-30 per birth year. That's the cold truth that most can't seem to rationalize. I am not part of youth hockey (guess you inferred that) and I do agree there will be some kids not currently in AAA/Elite hockey that will earn a D1 spot. You are right, coaches ultimately don't care and I root for the kids whose parents didn't spend $5-10k a year on travel hockey, private lessons, etc. Whatever the number of teams/kids that are considered in the D1 pool if we consider non elite/AA kids (which to your point is beyond the 40/600 reference) only reinforces how slim the odds are that little Johnny makes it to even the D1 level.
My point is the "$5-10k crowd" of parents are somewhat delusional. Traveling all over the country to play the "best of the best", ******** about festival selection picks, switching their kid from team to team every year for the best opportunity is rather pointless in my opinion. Most of this crowd seem to think it is a given their kid will play D1 and the only question is whether they have an NHL career. Highlighting how many kids actually play D1 hopefully brings some of this crowd back down to earth with expectations they have - and place on their son.
Let the kids play multiple sports and develop as overall athletes will serve most better in the long run. It is all about development and many parents lose sight of that and somehow think sport-specific ice hockey training 12 months a year will give their kid a leg up - in most cases it won't.
Agreed, delusional parents are certainly not limited to the Elite teams! Whatever the number for the pool of players/teams you choose, about 30 freshmen from MA will be on NCAA D 1 rosters each year. I just looked at the College Hockey 2015-2016 media guide and it stated 115 D1 players from MA, which supports the 30/year number.
FYI, MA Hockey registrations for youth are about 4,000 per birth year according to USA Hockey so taking the "universe" of registered MA players yields 1 player for every 133 players or 0.75%. So depending on the pool you consider the odds are anywhere from 1 in 20 (my original number) to 1 in 133 (the player pool universe) and maybe your 1 in 50 is a decent metric for kids/parents with D1 aspirations.
Interesting. I almost posted 1 in 100, but thought better. Maybe I should have. Thanks.