Agreed, delusional parents are certainly not limited to the Elite teams! Whatever the number for the pool of players/teams you choose, about 30 freshmen from MA will be on NCAA D 1 rosters each year. I just looked at the College Hockey 2015-2016 media guide and it stated 115 D1 players from MA, which supports the 30/year number.
FYI, MA Hockey registrations for youth are about 4,000 per birth year according to USA Hockey so taking the "universe" of registered MA players yields 1 player for every 133 players or 0.75%. So depending on the pool you consider the odds are anywhere from 1 in 20 (my original number) to 1 in 133 (the player pool universe) and maybe your 1 in 50 is a decent metric for kids/parents with D1 aspirations.