If tier 2 has a problem then yes there could be some "filter down" to tier 3, but if Tier 2 is a go as planned then equally there could be some movement upwards from midget/tier3 to fill open spots due to Covid etc.
NAHL is not going as planned. Two teams have folded. That's - at this stage - 60 players, minimum, that will look to catch on somewhere else, bumping someone else, or bump down.
Then you have the closed border. Who knows how many people that is from Junior A that need to find a spot in the U.S.
It won't be a flood of players but you will have some leakage from Prep and HS to Tier III junior. My kid would be.
And, the NCAA announced last week that players can play amateur hockey without impacting their eligibility for the 2020/21 season. I don't know how many players that will be.
I don't buy that kids at the Tier II level are staying home because of COVID risk. Sorry.