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Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Normally just a troll with a couple of benders but I do have a life outside youth hockey. Here's what I can contribute.
Coronavirus is not the flu. This virus is different in MANY ways. A comparison of the two is important. On average, the flu kills 36,000 Americans per year. The average R0 (naught) of the flu is just over 1. This means if 1 person gets the flu, they will on average give it to one other person. The R0 for the Corona virus is over 2. Not a big deal you might say? Over five generations of flu transmission there will be 5 people with it. Over 5 generations of coronavirus transmission, there will be 32. Second is mortality - the flu on average kills 0.1% of those afflicted. Corona virus is estimating to kill between 2% and 3%. So back to the transmission model - you will need 1,000 transmissions of influenza to average one death. With coronavirus, you will average a death after just five transmission generations. The cases double every six days.
This math is supported by what we are seeing in Massachusetts. Today marks the completion of the 7th six-day cycle from the first case 2/1. The math model predicts that by today we would have 128 cases. We have 138. If the virus continues unchecked, there will be 525,000 cases in Massachusetts alone and approximately 10,000 deaths by MEMORIAL DAY. I'm not trying to be hyperbolic. This is the epidemiological profile of Covid-19.
Yesterday the CDC modeled four different scenarios. Deaths ranged from 200,000 to 1.7 MILLION.
RESCHEDULE TRYOUTS. We need to flatten the curve and allow our hospitals the opportunity to treat within their limits. RESCHEDULE TRYOUTS.
My bender can be cut at the rescheduled date.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Thank you for this. Very clearly explained.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

It’s fundraising time for all these orgs.God forbid they miss out on $100 a kid.....Fed cancels playoffs but tryouts still go on...Seems a bit ridiculous to me.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Globally death toll is less then 5000 how can you estimate 200000 deaths. Globally there is less than 130000 cases. China has a billion people and less than 90000 cases and declining. Tryout should be postponed but stop with the fear mongering.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Not fear mongering. It's what the early stages of a pandemic look like. In March 1918 there were 100 soldiers with the flu. By the end of April there were 5000 and 3 deaths. Within a year almost 100 million died world wide. We are six weeks in. Don't believe me. Read the CDC models reported yesterday. Stay in your lane

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anonymous
Globally death toll is less then 5000 how can you estimate 200000 deaths. Globally there is less than 130000 cases. China has a billion people and less than 90000 cases and declining. Tryout should be postponed but stop with the fear mongering.
Didn’t do well in math did you? Or political science? China withholds info, which is why it’s worse than it should’ve been. 372 million people in the US, if 10% gets this with a 2% death rate, that’s 750k dead. Viruses expand exponentially (its a big word I know, look it up). Stop watching Fox News and look for real education.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

anon
Anonymous
Globally death toll is less then 5000 how can you estimate 200000 deaths. Globally there is less than 130000 cases. China has a billion people and less than 90000 cases and declining. Tryout should be postponed but stop with the fear mongering.
Didn’t do well in math did you? Or political science? China withholds info, which is why it’s worse than it should’ve been. 372 million people in the US, if 10% gets this with a 2% death rate, that’s 750k dead. Viruses expand exponentially (its a big word I know, look it up). Stop watching Fox News and look for real education.
Right I will do that. You should stop watching CNN and go back to voting for Elizabeth Warren genius.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

China also mandated their citizens to be confined to their homes/living quarters for 40 days.

Italy currently on lock down and have to get permission to go to grocery store.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Here's another way to visualize the #flattenthecurve concept using an example that most people are probably familiar with.

Remember in elementary school, your math teacher would ask if you'd rather have a penny a day that doubles every day for 30 days or a million dollars?

And the first reaction is usually a million bucks. But then the teacher would write it out. Doubling every day gives you a million bucks on Day 21 and you end up with $536,870,912 in the end.

That penny that doubles every day gives you half a billion dollars in a month. That's how exponential growth works.

But what happens if you slow the doubling on a couple days. Let's keep the growth flat on days 5, 6, and 7, then again on days 8 and 9. That's it. We just hold it steady for a couple days early on, let it continue, then hold again, then continue the same rate. In other words, let's use some hypothetical measures to mitigate the growth.

In the second example, we'd end up with "only" 67,108,864 dollars. Still a ton of money, but only 12.5% of what you'd have if the growth was unchecked, or unmitigated.

The thing is, the hypothetical measures aren't hypothetical. They're real and they're simple. STOP GOING OUT IN PUBLIC. Minimize contact with other people. Wash your hands. Stay inside. Avoid people.

Be the person on day 6 that helps it not spread to someone else! Let's all pitch in and flatten the curve.

RESCHEDULE TRYOUTS

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Last example of exponential growth

Let's say you have a lily pad that doubles in size every day, and on the 30th day it covers the entire pond.

What day will the lily pad have covered half the pond?

You probably said day 15. Somewhere in the middle. It's because our brains think linearly. Half of 30 is 15, so half = half.

But the answer is day 29. On day 29 it covered half the pond and doubled the next day.

So how much did it cover on the 15th? About 0.03% of the pond. In fact it doesn't get past 1% until day 24 when it hits 1.5625%. then 3.125%, then 6.25%, then 12.5%, then 25%, then 50%, then covered 100%.

The point? It's manageable and then one day it's not and then it just inevitably takes over. Which is starting to happen with this coronavirus, as the cases double every 3-4 days.

The faster we can social distance, the more time we can save. This is what people mean when they say flatten the curve. If the number of cases grows exponentially (which they are), people will die quickly before the virus incidence rates can naturally decrease. But if we can stay apart and stay out of crowds and stop spreading it (even if you're healthy!) we can shift it to a linear curve - one that our hospitals can manage.

Please, listen to the experts and the scientists and the doctors who are telling us to avoid people. Stay inside and away from people as much as humanly possible for the next couple weeks. Even if you don't have symptoms or have mild symptoms you may be spreading it. And our system depends on you not giving it to others. There's a reason every pro sport has been canceled.

One last thought. Dr Brian Monahan, the attending physician of the Congress, told them to expect 70m to 140m cases. If the reported 3% death rate so far holds, that's 2 million to 4 million dead Americans by summer. For perspective, less than 3 million Americans died last year. Of anything. It's a staggering number.

Edit for another fact: if 140m people get it, and 5% require the ICU (current numbers out of China and Italy), that's 7 million people who will need an ICU bed.

There are 100,000 ICU beds in America. We need to spread out the inevitable or this will be horrific.

#stayinside

#flattenthecurve

#rescheduletryouts

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Last example of exponential growth

Let's say you have a lily pad that doubles in size every day, and on the 30th day it covers the entire pond.

What day will the lily pad have covered half the pond?

You probably said day 15. Somewhere in the middle. It's because our brains think linearly. Half of 30 is 15, so half = half.

But the answer is day 29. On day 29 it covered half the pond and doubled the next day.

So how much did it cover on the 15th? About 0.03% of the pond. In fact it doesn't get past 1% until day 24 when it hits 1.5625%. then 3.125%, then 6.25%, then 12.5%, then 25%, then 50%, then covered 100%.

The point? It's manageable and then one day it's not and then it just inevitably takes over. Which is starting to happen with this coronavirus, as the cases double every 3-4 days.

The faster we can social distance, the more time we can save. This is what people mean when they say flatten the curve. If the number of cases grows exponentially (which they are), people will die quickly before the virus incidence rates can naturally decrease. But if we can stay apart and stay out of crowds and stop spreading it (even if you're healthy!) we can shift it to a linear curve - one that our hospitals can manage.

Please, listen to the experts and the scientists and the doctors who are telling us to avoid people. Stay inside and away from people as much as humanly possible for the next couple weeks. Even if you don't have symptoms or have mild symptoms you may be spreading it. And our system depends on you not giving it to others. There's a reason every pro sport has been canceled.

One last thought. Dr Brian Monahan, the attending physician of the Congress, told them to expect 70m to 140m cases. If the reported 3% death rate so far holds, that's 2 million to 4 million dead Americans by summer. For perspective, less than 3 million Americans died last year. Of anything. It's a staggering number.

Edit for another fact: if 140m people get it, and 5% require the ICU (current numbers out of China and Italy), that's 7 million people who will need an ICU bed.

There are 100,000 ICU beds in America. We need to spread out the inevitable or this will be horrific.

#stayinside

#flattenthecurve

#rescheduletryouts
F'n babies - suck it up. The media and Dems are trying to create panic because they hate the Prez.... what are we going to do stick our heads in the sand for 6 months until next hockey season? (actually doesn't sound too bad). Either way my kid has his contract already...

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Anon
Last example of exponential growth

Let\'s say you have a lily pad that doubles in size every day, and on the 30th day it covers the entire pond.

What day will the lily pad have covered half the pond?

You probably said day 15. Somewhere in the middle. It\'s because our brains think linearly. Half of 30 is 15, so half = half.

But the answer is day 29. On day 29 it covered half the pond and doubled the next day.

So how much did it cover on the 15th? About 0.03% of the pond. In fact it doesn\'t get past 1% until day 24 when it hits 1.5625%. then 3.125%, then 6.25%, then 12.5%, then 25%, then 50%, then covered 100%.

The point? It\'s manageable and then one day it\'s not and then it just inevitably takes over. Which is starting to happen with this coronavirus, as the cases double every 3-4 days.

The faster we can social distance, the more time we can save. This is what people mean when they say flatten the curve. If the number of cases grows exponentially (which they are), people will die quickly before the virus incidence rates can naturally decrease. But if we can stay apart and stay out of crowds and stop spreading it (even if you\'re healthy!) we can shift it to a linear curve - one that our hospitals can manage.

Please, listen to the experts and the scientists and the doctors who are telling us to avoid people. Stay inside and away from people as much as humanly possible for the next couple weeks. Even if you don\'t have symptoms or have mild symptoms you may be spreading it. And our system depends on you not giving it to others. There\'s a reason every pro sport has been canceled.

One last thought. Dr Brian Monahan, the attending physician of the Congress, told them to expect 70m to 140m cases. If the reported 3% death rate so far holds, that\'s 2 million to 4 million dead Americans by summer. For perspective, less than 3 million Americans died last year. Of anything. It\'s a staggering number.

Edit for another fact: if 140m people get it, and 5% require the ICU (current numbers out of China and Italy), that\'s 7 million people who will need an ICU bed.

There are 100,000 ICU beds in America. We need to spread out the inevitable or this will be horrific.

#stayinside

#flattenthecurve

#rescheduletryouts
F'n babies - suck it up. The media and Dems are trying to create panic because they hate the Prez.... what are we going to do stick our heads in the sand for 6 months until next hockey season? (actually doesn't sound too bad). Either way my kid has his contract already...
Lol, imagine if Trump tests positive. You'll freak out.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

The optics of holding tryouts reflects poorly...my kid isn't going anywhere, he already has a spot.

Bigger issue is, let's not act like we're epidemiologists. The US has limited testing drastically and the only ones being tested are those that are significantly ill or exposed to someone who is positive. Covid is already out there amongst us and the majority have mild illness and aren't getting tested. They think it's just a cold. When you are not testing liberally of course the mortality rate will look high.
South Korea is testing widely and their data shows >90% have mild illness and the mortality rate is low. As soon as we start testing everyone we will see the same.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
The optics of holding tryouts reflects poorly...my kid isn't going anywhere, he already has a spot.

Bigger issue is, let's not act like we're epidemiologists. The US has limited testing drastically and the only ones being tested are those that are significantly ill or exposed to someone who is positive. Covid is already out there amongst us and the majority have mild illness and aren't getting tested. They think it's just a cold. When you are not testing liberally of course the mortality rate will look high.
South Korea is testing widely and their data shows >90% have mild illness and the mortality rate is low. As soon as we start testing everyone we will see the same.
Yeah but that doesn’t fit the Democratic agenda.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Normally just a troll with a couple of benders but I do have a life outside youth hockey. Here's what I can contribute.
Coronavirus is not the flu. This virus is different in MANY ways. A comparison of the two is important. On average, the flu kills 36,000 Americans per year. The average R0 (naught) of the flu is just over 1. This means if 1 person gets the flu, they will on average give it to one other person. The R0 for the Corona virus is over 2. Not a big deal you might say? Over five generations of flu transmission there will be 5 people with it. Over 5 generations of coronavirus transmission, there will be 32. Second is mortality - the flu on average kills 0.1% of those afflicted. Corona virus is estimating to kill between 2% and 3%. So back to the transmission model - you will need 1,000 transmissions of influenza to average one death. With coronavirus, you will average a death after just five transmission generations. The cases double every six days.
This math is supported by what we are seeing in Massachusetts. Today marks the completion of the 7th six-day cycle from the first case 2/1. The math model predicts that by today we would have 128 cases. We have 138. If the virus continues unchecked, there will be 525,000 cases in Massachusetts alone and approximately 10,000 deaths by MEMORIAL DAY. I'm not trying to be hyperbolic. This is the epidemiological profile of Covid-19.
Yesterday the CDC modeled four different scenarios. Deaths ranged from 200,000 to 1.7 MILLION.
RESCHEDULE TRYOUTS. We need to flatten the curve and allow our hospitals the opportunity to treat within their limits. RESCHEDULE TRYOUTS.
My bender can be cut at the rescheduled date.
Thank you for this. What is happening in Italy right now can easily happen here within a month or two if we don’t slow the spread of this virus immediately. I’m grateful you took the time to share this information and explain it very well.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anonymous
Anon
Normally just a troll with a couple of benders but I do have a life outside youth hockey. Here\'s what I can contribute.
Coronavirus is not the flu. This virus is different in MANY ways. A comparison of the two is important. On average, the flu kills 36,000 Americans per year. The average R0 (naught) of the flu is just over 1. This means if 1 person gets the flu, they will on average give it to one other person. The R0 for the Corona virus is over 2. Not a big deal you might say? Over five generations of flu transmission there will be 5 people with it. Over 5 generations of coronavirus transmission, there will be 32. Second is mortality - the flu on average kills 0.1% of those afflicted. Corona virus is estimating to kill between 2% and 3%. So back to the transmission model - you will need 1,000 transmissions of influenza to average one death. With coronavirus, you will average a death after just five transmission generations. The cases double every six days.
This math is supported by what we are seeing in Massachusetts. Today marks the completion of the 7th six-day cycle from the first case 2/1. The math model predicts that by today we would have 128 cases. We have 138. If the virus continues unchecked, there will be 525,000 cases in Massachusetts alone and approximately 10,000 deaths by MEMORIAL DAY. I\'m not trying to be hyperbolic. This is the epidemiological profile of Covid-19.
Yesterday the CDC modeled four different scenarios. Deaths ranged from 200,000 to 1.7 MILLION.
RESCHEDULE TRYOUTS. We need to flatten the curve and allow our hospitals the opportunity to treat within their limits. RESCHEDULE TRYOUTS.
My bender can be cut at the rescheduled date.
Thank you for this. What is happening in Italy right now can easily happen here within a month or two if we don’t slow the spread of this virus immediately. I’m grateful you took the time to share this information and explain it very well.
Agreed. This is the clearest breakdown of the math I’ve come across. Thank you for sharing it. EHF clubs don’t be part of the problem just because you’re afraid of missing out on one more 12 year old (or their tryout fees). Playoffs were rightly cancelled. Be part of the solution and cancel tryouts too. The teams are already set anyway, we all know that.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Malitia Man
Anonymous
Anon
Normally just a troll with a couple of benders but I do have a life outside youth hockey. Here\\\'s what I can contribute.
Coronavirus is not the flu. This virus is different in MANY ways. A comparison of the two is important. On average, the flu kills 36,000 Americans per year. The average R0 (naught) of the flu is just over 1. This means if 1 person gets the flu, they will on average give it to one other person. The R0 for the Corona virus is over 2. Not a big deal you might say? Over five generations of flu transmission there will be 5 people with it. Over 5 generations of coronavirus transmission, there will be 32. Second is mortality - the flu on average kills 0.1% of those afflicted. Corona virus is estimating to kill between 2% and 3%. So back to the transmission model - you will need 1,000 transmissions of influenza to average one death. With coronavirus, you will average a death after just five transmission generations. The cases double every six days.
This math is supported by what we are seeing in Massachusetts. Today marks the completion of the 7th six-day cycle from the first case 2/1. The math model predicts that by today we would have 128 cases. We have 138. If the virus continues unchecked, there will be 525,000 cases in Massachusetts alone and approximately 10,000 deaths by MEMORIAL DAY. I\\\'m not trying to be hyperbolic. This is the epidemiological profile of Covid-19.
Yesterday the CDC modeled four different scenarios. Deaths ranged from 200,000 to 1.7 MILLION.
RESCHEDULE TRYOUTS. We need to flatten the curve and allow our hospitals the opportunity to treat within their limits. RESCHEDULE TRYOUTS.
My bender can be cut at the rescheduled date.
Thank you for this. What is happening in Italy right now can easily happen here within a month or two if we don’t slow the spread of this virus immediately. I’m grateful you took the time to share this information and explain it very well.
Agreed. This is the clearest breakdown of the math I’ve come across. Thank you for sharing it. EHF clubs don’t be part of the problem just because you’re afraid of missing out on one more 12 year old (or their tryout fees). Playoffs were rightly cancelled. Be part of the solution and cancel tryouts too. The teams are already set anyway, we all know that.
CDC is predicting around 150k case worldwide by May his numbers are not accurate. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

There are 155,000 cases already world wide. TODAY. Read the link to the CDC study done yesterday. You can also read the article you reference from WHO. The math is correct. The article you post shows the cases in the USA are trending to double every 3 days.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
There are 155,000 cases already world wide. TODAY. Read the link to the CDC study done yesterday. You can also read the article you reference from WHO. The math is correct. The article you post shows the cases in the USA are trending to double every 3 days.
That's as much a result of the greater availability of global testing as the spread of the disease.

MA has seen 15 new cases each of the last two days. 15. That's a far cry from doubling every three days.

And 80% of confirmed cases are mild.

Here's another number. Of 138 confirmed cases in MA, 104 are tied directly to the Biogen meeting. If it weren't for that one incident we'd be among the lowest states.

I'm all for canceling large group gatherings to protect the health care system. But let's pump the brakes on all the gloom and doom death projections. It's not 1918 any more.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Anon
There are 155,000 cases already world wide. TODAY. Read the link to the CDC study done yesterday. You can also read the article you reference from WHO. The math is correct. The article you post shows the cases in the USA are trending to double every 3 days.
That's as much a result of the greater availability of global testing as the spread of the disease.

MA has seen 15 new cases each of the last two days. 15. That's a far cry from doubling every three days.

And 80% of confirmed cases are mild.

Here's another number. Of 138 confirmed cases in MA, 104 are tied directly to the Biogen meeting. If it weren't for that one incident we'd be among the lowest states.

I'm all for canceling large group gatherings to protect the health care system. But let's pump the brakes on all the gloom and doom death projections. It's not 1918 any more.
Yes I read it wrong but his numbers are not going to be accurate.10% of the population will not get covid19.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

It's not "his" numbers. The CDC yesterday stated their models estimate 160 - 240 MILLION Americans will be infected. Are they in on it too? https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coronavirus-model-210m-infected-1-7m-dead.html

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

You're right. One case at the start of a conference February 26/27 is now 102 cases 17 days later. Have you ever heard of the flu (or anything for that matter) spreading so quickly? When our testing catches up there will be many many more confirmed cases. CDC and epidemiological experts say the profile of this virus is worse than the 1918 H1N1 strain. Add to the mix easier transportation now and it can spread even easier. Interstate highways didn't even exist then. Don't panic... But don't deny or ignore either

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

I'm guessing you're not reading this thread anymore - but if you are - 26 more cases were added today bringing the total in Massachusetts to 164. It's still following the overall profile of doubling every 6 days. Spend time learning about exponential growth. This will likely get out of hand quickly without significant efforts by all of us.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
I'm guessing you're not reading this thread anymore - but if you are - 26 more cases were added today bringing the total in Massachusetts to 164. It's still following the overall profile of doubling every 6 days. Spend time learning about exponential growth. This will likely get out of hand quickly without significant efforts by all of us.
actually the numbers are 45 confirmed (MA Governors own numbers), the rest are suspected... which is odd since we should know by now if yesterday's suspected are confirmed or not. the numbers are really not adding up.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Confused
Anon
I\'m guessing you\'re not reading this thread anymore - but if you are - 26 more cases were added today bringing the total in Massachusetts to 164. It\'s still following the overall profile of doubling every 6 days. Spend time learning about exponential growth. This will likely get out of hand quickly without significant efforts by all of us.
actually the numbers are 45 confirmed (MA Governors own numbers), the rest are suspected... which is odd since we should know by now if yesterday's suspected are confirmed or not. the numbers are really not adding up.
According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), a presumptive positive result is when a patient has tested positive by a local public health laboratory, but when those results are still pending confirmation at a CDC lab. Mass is up to 164 and rising,

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164


At this rate we're looking at 600+ cases in MA by 4/1. The social distancing measures wont slow the numbers for weeks down the road.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Confused
Anon
I\\\'m guessing you\\\'re not reading this thread anymore - but if you are - 26 more cases were added today bringing the total in Massachusetts to 164. It\\\'s still following the overall profile of doubling every 6 days. Spend time learning about exponential growth. This will likely get out of hand quickly without significant efforts by all of us.
actually the numbers are 45 confirmed (MA Governors own numbers), the rest are suspected... which is odd since we should know by now if yesterday\'s suspected are confirmed or not. the numbers are really not adding up.
According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), a presumptive positive result is when a patient has tested positive by a local public health laboratory, but when those results are still pending confirmation at a CDC lab. Mass is up to 164 and rising,

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164


At this rate we're looking at 600+ cases in MA by 4/1. The social distancing measures wont slow the numbers for weeks down the road.
You seem to actually be enjoying all this. Which makes you one sick ****.

Oh, and it's Centers. I'd have thought someone with your obvious academic pedigree would know at least that much.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Thank you for the info. Unfortunately we will be closer to 1,000 cases by April 1 if the model continues. 500 by 3/26. The numbers is MA double every 5-6 days. Stay safe.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

The reason the models are flawed is due to the fact that the corona virus has been in the US since last fall. Its rampant here in the US already, just like the flu. It didn't start 2/1. The CDC had to pick an arbitrary date to start their modeling in order to build some semblance of baseline statistics. The virus in China "probably" started Spring/Summer of 2019. They lied to us all. It didn't start in China in Dec 2019. It's a communist controlled government & country. We will never know their real death count, and they will never tell us when it started. Your all sheep.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Except we can use known data for the modeling. For example, ONE person was infected 2/26 at the Biogen conference at the Long Wharf. 17 days later we have 102 cases from that initial contact. That alone is sufficient to verify the model without breaking out the tin foil and political noise. Be Prepared.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

There were 28 cases on March 8. This is what exponential growth looks like

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
There were 28 cases on March 8. This is what exponential growth looks like
You're right. The number of test kits HAS been growing exponentially.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Do test kits cause the disease? Buddy you're an idiot and punching up a few weight classes here

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Do test kits cause the disease? Buddy you're an idiot and punching up a few weight classes here
True or false? Confirmation of the disease requires that the individual test positive.

Do you really think these are independent variables?

Maybe I'm not the idiot...

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Of course you need a positive test to be "positive". Is this your enlightened contribution? That doesn't change the profile of the virus - rather allows for more accurate measures. Having the disease, however, is not dependent on being tested. You're painfully trying to argue for some reason that the disease isn't following predictive models. It is. Variability in numbers from state to state or region to region is insignificant. The only way to drop the R0 value is to isolate populations or vaccinate. Pay close attention over the next couple of weeks.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Of course you need a positive test to be "positive". Is this your enlightened contribution? That doesn't change the profile of the virus - rather allows for more accurate measures. Having the disease, however, is not dependent on being tested. You're painfully trying to argue for some reason that the disease isn't following predictive models. It is. Variability in numbers from state to state or region to region is insignificant. The only way to drop the R0 value is to isolate populations or vaccinate. Pay close attention over the next couple of weeks.
True or false? If we had the ability to test everyone in the world, the number of people actually infected would be exactly the same, but the number of confirmed cases would be exponentially higher.

I'm not claiming testing causes the disease. I'm simply saying that PART of the growth in confirmed cases is the rapid expansion in the availability of test kits these past two weeks.

Meaning, your precious model is flawed because it fails to take a critical DEPENDENT variable into account.

R0 that, bud.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Good god - did you just say with increased testing the "number of people actually infected would be exactly the same, but the number of confirmed cases would be exponentially higher"? WTF are you talking about??? A confirmed case IS a person infected with the disease. This is so painful. Perhaps you mean the number of suspected cases would be the same??? Oh no, that doesn't work either. The number of people symptomatic? Possibly that's what you meant. It's an irrelevant point though. You can be contagious without symptoms. I'm sorry you don't understand. I do. I spent far too many years on this to not have online battles with folks like yourself. Good luck and I hope you better understand this before it's too late for you or a loved one.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Good god - did you just say with increased testing the "number of people actually infected would be exactly the same, but the number of confirmed cases would be exponentially higher"? WTF are you talking about??? A confirmed case IS a person infected with the disease. This is so painful. Perhaps you mean the number of suspected cases would be the same??? Oh no, that doesn't work either. The number of people symptomatic? Possibly that's what you meant. It's an irrelevant point though. You can be contagious without symptoms. I'm sorry you don't understand. I do. I spent far too many years on this to not have online battles with folks like yourself. Good luck and I hope you better understand this before it's too late for you or a loved one.
True or false? A person infected with Covid-19 that is not tested is not a confirmed case, but is still, nevertheless, infected.

You're starting to argue against yourself. You seem to now be saying the disease requires testing to exists.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

What you appear to be missing is that the already "confirmed cases" align with the mathematical model you seem to deny. Yes - there are many more people positive than we know because of inadequate availability of testing. The mortality rate will also decline with more confirmed cases that have mild symptoms but neither of these statements take away from the fact that this virus, according to the experts in the field, is far more contagious and fatal than anything we have seen in decades. I haven't a clue why you choose to argue but I'm done with the banter. It's such a waste of time. Go back to banging on the glass. I'm sure the other parents flock towards you

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
What you appear to be missing is that the already "confirmed cases" align with the mathematical model you seem to deny. Yes - there are many more people positive than we know because of inadequate availability of testing. The mortality rate will also decline with more confirmed cases that have mild symptoms but neither of these statements take away from the fact that this virus, according to the experts in the field, is far more contagious and fatal than anything we have seen in decades. I haven't a clue why you choose to argue but I'm done with the banter. It's such a waste of time. Go back to banging on the glass. I'm sure the other parents flock towards you
I never said it wasn't highly contagious, or that it didn't have a higher mortality rate than anything we've seen in some time. My point about the impact of the availability of test kits as a variable is a simple one, and you seem to finally understand it.

As far as whether parents avoid me, well, if I tried to shout them down as idiots simply because they dared to disagree with my superior knowledge, I think they probably would. Name-calling isn't, after all, the act of a mature, well-balanced individual.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Thank you for clearing that up. My framed Master's Degree in Biochemistry with Honors hanging on the wall isn't worth the paper its printed on. You my friend will be called Dunning. Dunning Kruger.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Thank you for clearing that up. My framed Master's Degree in Biochemistry with Honors hanging on the wall isn't worth the paper its printed on. You my friend will be called Dunning. Dunning Kruger.
Thank you for posting your resume so we can all marvel at your superiority.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Someone needs to call the local papers or news channels and let them know that this maniacal money grubbing league is about to put the entire state at risk because they want to trick town parents into paying big money for rat hockey. All the elite and T1 teams are set. It is patently ridiculous that these organizations are moving forward with tryouts considering we’ve Only Changed behaviors for less than a week And the numbers are still growing exponentially!

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Except we can use known data for the modeling. For example, ONE person was infected 2/26 at the Biogen conference at the Long Wharf. 17 days later we have 102 cases from that initial contact. That alone is sufficient to verify the model without breaking out the tin foil and political noise. Be Prepared.
And yet, Rudy Gobert showed wanton disregard for the hazards, and that one case has resulted in two additional.

How do you explain one case becoming 104 and another becoming 3?

That Biogen leadership team must be one tight-knit group!

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

You're kidding, right? He just tested positive Wednesday. A person can have the virus up to two weeks without showing symptoms. A 5 year old kid getting his autograph just tested positive today. You definitely don't understand how this works. Just don't endanger others

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

kid tests positive getting an autograph - https://www.foxnews.com/sports/rhode-island-child-tests-positive-coronavirus-after-getting-autograph-utah-jazz-gobert-health-officials-deny-connection

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Wow !! Here is a simple test of people’s convictions: I will bet 1 million dollars or any amount you can afford,
that there will be less deaths from the corona virus than the flu virus in 2020

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Wow !! Here is a simple test of people’s convictions: I will bet 1 million dollars or any amount you can afford,
that there will be less deaths from the corona virus than the flu virus in 2020
That means you are a moron. Before this is said and done it will likely be much more deadly than any flu we have seen in recent memory. We don’t have the ICU beds or respirators in this country to handle what is going to happen unless the rate of transmission is slowed dramatically.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anonymous
Anon
Wow !! Here is a simple test of people’s convictions: I will bet 1 million dollars or any amount you can afford,
that there will be less deaths from the corona virus than the flu virus in 2020
That means you are a moron. Before this is said and done it will likely be much more deadly than any flu we have seen in recent memory. We don’t have the ICU beds or respirators in this country to handle what is going to happen unless the rate of transmission is slowed dramatically.
So, because his opinion is different from your opinion, he's a a moron?

Looks like you were up pretty late, worrying about something you can't control.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Anonymous
Anon
Wow !! Here is a simple test of people’s convictions: I will bet 1 million dollars or any amount you can afford,
that there will be less deaths from the corona virus than the flu virus in 2020
That means you are a moron. Before this is said and done it will likely be much more deadly than any flu we have seen in recent memory. We don’t have the ICU beds or respirators in this country to handle what is going to happen unless the rate of transmission is slowed dramatically.
So, because his opinion is different from your opinion, he's a a moron?

Looks like you were up pretty late, worrying about something you can't control.
You just rambled on with a bunch of nonsense, speculation and zero facts .
Simple, take the bet .

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

How do you know it was one, everyone at the conference was not tested. Ding dong there could have been 10 people or 20 at the conference who had it. Hotel workers, Biogen employees, vendors.... Duhh So they get one who tested positive,so what, they never tested everyone who was there... Its everywhere, like the flu. Many have had it already in this country. thought it was the flu and are over it already....

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anonymous
Malitia Man
Anonymous
Anon
Normally just a troll with a couple of benders but I do have a life outside youth hockey. Here\\\\\\\'s what I can contribute.
Coronavirus is not the flu. This virus is different in MANY ways. A comparison of the two is important. On average, the flu kills 36,000 Americans per year. The average R0 (naught) of the flu is just over 1. This means if 1 person gets the flu, they will on average give it to one other person. The R0 for the Corona virus is over 2. Not a big deal you might say? Over five generations of flu transmission there will be 5 people with it. Over 5 generations of coronavirus transmission, there will be 32. Second is mortality - the flu on average kills 0.1% of those afflicted. Corona virus is estimating to kill between 2% and 3%. So back to the transmission model - you will need 1,000 transmissions of influenza to average one death. With coronavirus, you will average a death after just five transmission generations. The cases double every six days.
This math is supported by what we are seeing in Massachusetts. Today marks the completion of the 7th six-day cycle from the first case 2/1. The math model predicts that by today we would have 128 cases. We have 138. If the virus continues unchecked, there will be 525,000 cases in Massachusetts alone and approximately 10,000 deaths by MEMORIAL DAY. I\\\\\\\'m not trying to be hyperbolic. This is the epidemiological profile of Covid-19.
Yesterday the CDC modeled four different scenarios. Deaths ranged from 200,000 to 1.7 MILLION.
RESCHEDULE TRYOUTS. We need to flatten the curve and allow our hospitals the opportunity to treat within their limits. RESCHEDULE TRYOUTS.
My bender can be cut at the rescheduled date.
Thank you for this. What is happening in Italy right now can easily happen here within a month or two if we don’t slow the spread of this virus immediately. I’m grateful you took the time to share this information and explain it very well.
Agreed. This is the clearest breakdown of the math I’ve come across. Thank you for sharing it. EHF clubs don’t be part of the problem just because you’re afraid of missing out on one more 12 year old (or their tryout fees). Playoffs were rightly cancelled. Be part of the solution and cancel tryouts too. The teams are already set anyway, we all know that.
CDC is predicting around 150k case worldwide by May his numbers are not accurate. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data
What? Already surpassed that days ago. The new numbers are putting just the US alone between 400,000 and 2.4 million that will test positive. At the current fatality rate of 3.8% (closer to 8% in Washington state alone) that is between 15k and 91,000 dead in the US alone.

80% of people may never even show a sign of carrying the virus, kind of like an STD for your dboard degenerates, and will pass it to dozens of others which will then do the same. The country doesn't order 5 million test kits because it thinks a few thousand will be effected.

Honestly not sure what to do about events like tryouts but need to keep life as normal as possible. Do we quarantine people to their own towns?

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

#stayinside

#flattenthecurve

#rescheduletryouts


Thx OP

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

No matter what Fat Donnie says this isn't a 'democratic hoax' and there have been 179,000 cases and 7,000 deaths as of right now. And there will be 30 to 40 new testing sites running in 19 states that could each perform 2,000 to 4,000 tests a week.

Everyone should be a bit angry with our lack of preparation. Vote in November.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Stick it buddy, this is the icehockeydboard not political op-ed board.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/17 = 197

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

OP here.E c Thank you for that information. Unchecked the number will be 500,000 by memorial day in Massachusetts alone

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

If you need a visual think about it this way. Remember the last two weeks you barely can’t find toilet paper. Now imagine that same run on hospital beds. We have finite capacity that if we are not flattening the curve will be maxed out. And the Doctors will face the choice who to treat and who not to.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Still trending within the mathematical predictive model. There will be 15,000 in Massachusetts by Tax day

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

On average doubling every two days from day 1 in Massachusetts. We need to do better. This is going to overwhelm our system soon. We are still on pace for more than 15,000 by Tax day.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Why R rinks still open?
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
where all the blowhards .....

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

anon
Why R rinks still open?
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
where all the blowhards .....
Already weighed in on why these statistics and models don't really yet tell us yet where this is going.

First broad distribution of test kids in the U.S. was this week. Millions now being tested, versus thousands. Do you think that isn't resulting in more confirmed cases?

I'm not saying the is isn't serious. It is. But, as testing expands, the number of cases isn't greater, only the number of confirmed cases. Sick is sick, whether tested or not.

Bears watching.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Protocol for testing is still very restrictive, including exhibiting symptoms. That said, today's positive cases were infected a week or more ago. Today's infected won't hit the radar for almost a week or so. As so few are still taking this seriously, we will be in bad shape very soon. 650 positive as of today with five deaths. Still on track for more than 15,000 by tax day.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)

Keep taking your kids to skills and 3v3, you dolts. When grandpa croaks don’t act like you don’t know how or why it happened. The numbers are bearing-out exactly how they forecasted. Your insistence on continuing to buy ice, schedule play dates, and have sleep overs was always caked-into the math problem, along with other’s insistence to continue as normal with no adjustments in behavior. Your stupidity was always inevitable prophecy.

Now buckle in and out grandma in the basement with the canned goods because we’re getting closer to the part where exponential starts feeling like a runaway freight train.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)

Keep taking your kids to skills and 3v3, you dolts. When grandpa croaks don’t act like you don’t know how or why it happened. The numbers are bearing-out exactly how they forecasted. Your insistence on continuing to buy ice, schedule play dates, and have sleep overs was always caked-into the math problem, along with other’s insistence to continue as normal with no adjustments in behavior. Your stupidity was always inevitable prophecy.

Now buckle in and put grandma in the basement with the canned goods because we’re getting closer to the part where exponential starts feeling like a runaway freight train.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

ToldUso
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)

Keep taking your kids to skills and 3v3, you dolts. When grandpa croaks don’t act like you don’t know how or why it happened. The numbers are bearing-out exactly how they forecasted. Your insistence on continuing to buy ice, schedule play dates, and have sleep overs was always caked-into the math problem, along with other’s insistence to continue as normal with no adjustments in behavior. Your stupidity was always inevitable prophecy.

Now buckle in and put grandma in the basement with the canned goods because we’re getting closer to the part where exponential starts feeling like a runaway freight train.
You're an idiot and sound just as bad as the other toolbags on this board that post about EHF > E9 bs. The numbers aren't growing exponentially they are slowing down. We will not hit anywhere close to 15k by Tax Day here in MA. In fact MA is doing very good comparatively with only NY and now NJ driving the number of infections in the US. Washington State has slowed down as well with no new infections in the last couple of days. Just because you saw Contagion 3 times on Netflix this week doesn't mean you know jack about it.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Look at the MA numbers, then look up the definition of exponential, stupid.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

ToldUso
Look at the MA numbers, then look up the definition of exponential, stupid.
It appears you are confusing multiplying, say doubling 2 4 8 16 (which it seems to be doing every week)
With exponential: as in a X to the Y power --- 2 4 16 256 65,536...

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

OP here... Just jumping in. Try x to the Y power where "x" is 2. X in this case is the R0 value, the avg number of people who are infected from a single infected individual. The formula is then "2" to the Y power. Y is defined as each transmission generation. X to the 1 is 2. X to the 2 is 4. X to the 3 is 8... And so on and so on. That's how this model applies. And it is spot on this far

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Here is a number 0% .. That’s the number of the 10s of thousands of Americans who have had corona virus and self
recovered. They never went to the doctor, and never reported symptoms. They are not a part of
any statistics. Also we now have proven medication being given in clinical trials that kills the virus.. All will be back to normal by mid April!

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

This right here is frightening. You haven't a clue. There isn't significant evidence of ANY treatment being effective. That's what the Director of Allergy and Infectious Disease said at Saturday's press conference. Listen to them and not the scientists. Many drugs are being trialed but nothing has been shown to be effective yet. Stay in your lane

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
This right here is frightening. You haven\\\'t a clue. There isn\\\'t significant evidence of ANY treatment being effective. That\\\'s what the Director of Allergy and Infectious Disease said at Saturday\\\'s press conference. Listen to them and not the scientists. Many drugs are being trialed but nothing has been shown to be effective yet. Stay in your lane
That is my lane. The SARS and MERS viruses died before vaccines could be developed, so there was never a need. Quite a number of drugs with FDA approval are showing promise to drastically reduce the impact of the virus, as well as the duration.

Things are returning to a state of normalcy in China. Do you think we as a nation will be better at working through this than China, or worse?

Honestly, the scariest aspect right now is the lack of availability of PPE, which is hindering testing and treatment.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
OP here... Just jumping in. Try x to the Y power where \"x\" is 2. X in this case is the R0 value, the avg number of people who are infected from a single infected individual. The formula is then \"2\" to the Y power. Y is defined as each transmission generation. X to the 1 is 2. X to the 2 is 4. X to the 3 is 8... And so on and so on. That\'s how this model applies. And it is spot on this far
Oh, geez, it's R0D2 again.

OK, according to Johns Hopkins, the number of cases on MA has been roughly doubling every three days. 218 x 2 = 436 vs. 413. 256 x 2 = 512 vs. 529. 328 x 2 = 656 vs. 646.

You are claiming it will continue that trend. So, by April 20th - less than a month - MA will have roughly the same number of cases the entire WORLD has accumulated in a little under three months? By April 21st it will be over half a million?

Are you willing to stand by those numbers?

Be sure to stop back on April 21st to see how your model fared.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Ofcourse population density will influence the data... But yes. Without serious efforts to limit the numbers, they will become unfathomable. No human has immunity. It is a new virus. That's why the smarter than all of us scientists are shutting everything down. It seems unimaginable but it will be much higher than you could ever think.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Ofcourse population density will influence the data... But yes. Without serious efforts to limit the numbers, they will become unfathomable. No human has immunity. It is a new virus. That\'s why the smarter than all of us scientists are shutting everything down. It seems unimaginable but it will be much higher than you could ever think.
OK, keep coming back Let's see how long the doubling-every-three-days model lasts.

My bet is less than another week.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Worldwide- it took 67 days to reach 100,000 cases; 11 days to reach 200,000 cases, 4 days to reach 300,000 cases; and one day (later today) to reach 400,000 cases. Obviously as this progresses, the doubling time will decrease as the number of uninfected decreases and is more sparse. The only reason it has temporarily slowed in China is they are on a strict lockdown and conduct far more tests than we do. We haven't even come close. Let's all do our part and hope the scientists are wrong.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Worldwide- it took 67 days to reach 100,000 cases; 11 days to reach 200,000 cases, 4 days to reach 300,000 cases; and one day (later today) to reach 400,000 cases. Obviously as this progresses, the doubling time will decrease as the number of uninfected decreases and is more sparse. The only reason it has temporarily slowed in China is they are on a strict lockdown and conduct far more tests than we do. We haven\'t even come close. Let\'s all do our part and hope the scientists are wrong.
Wrong. Lockdown ended. They are going back to work, etc. On a business briefing call. Returning to normal.

Try to keep up.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Wuhan province lockdown being lifted April 8th. Hubei province lockdown being eased later this week. Keeping up

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Anon
OP here... Just jumping in. Try x to the Y power where \\\"x\\\" is 2. X in this case is the R0 value, the avg number of people who are infected from a single infected individual. The formula is then \\\"2\\\" to the Y power. Y is defined as each transmission generation. X to the 1 is 2. X to the 2 is 4. X to the 3 is 8... And so on and so on. That\\\'s how this model applies. And it is spot on this far
Oh, geez, it's R0D2 again.

OK, according to Johns Hopkins, the number of cases on MA has been roughly doubling every three days. 218 x 2 = 436 vs. 413. 256 x 2 = 512 vs. 529. 328 x 2 = 656 vs. 646.

You are claiming it will continue that trend. So, by April 20th - less than a month - MA will have roughly the same number of cases the entire WORLD has accumulated in a little under three months? By April 21st it will be over half a million?

Are you willing to stand by those numbers?

Be sure to stop back on April 21st to see how your model fared.
You didn't go far enough.

We are at 777 now, doubling every 3 days: in 40 days we will have 6.3m cases. The population of MA is 6.9m. Cool, so i guess May 4th will be interesting.


Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

just sayin
Anon
Anon
OP here... Just jumping in. Try x to the Y power where \\\\\\\"x\\\\\\\" is 2. X in this case is the R0 value, the avg number of people who are infected from a single infected individual. The formula is then \\\\\\\"2\\\\\\\" to the Y power. Y is defined as each transmission generation. X to the 1 is 2. X to the 2 is 4. X to the 3 is 8... And so on and so on. That\\\\\\\'s how this model applies. And it is spot on this far
Oh, geez, it\'s R0D2 again.

OK, according to Johns Hopkins, the number of cases on MA has been roughly doubling every three days. 218 x 2 = 436 vs. 413. 256 x 2 = 512 vs. 529. 328 x 2 = 656 vs. 646.

You are claiming it will continue that trend. So, by April 20th - less than a month - MA will have roughly the same number of cases the entire WORLD has accumulated in a little under three months? By April 21st it will be over half a million?

Are you willing to stand by those numbers?

Be sure to stop back on April 21st to see how your model fared.
You didn't go far enough.

We are at 777 now, doubling every 3 days: in 40 days we will have 6.3m cases. The population of MA is 6.9m. Cool, so i guess May 4th will be interesting.


I've been tracking MA cases reported by Johns Hopkins, Worldometer and a third site that says their source is CDC, WHO, etc. The MA cases have been identical every day.

Yesterday, Johns Hopkins went to a county/city reporting model. It makes the map look much, much worse. More red.

But, in going for the sensationalist stance, they seem to have sacrificed accuracy. They are only reporting 724 MA cases now, while the other two sites are reporting the 777 cases you cite.

I tried to convince R0D2 that the number of confirmed cases is a dependent variable on the number of test kits available, and that the expanded availability of test kits is impacting that doubling-every-three-days. But, he didn't want to hear it. The model is the source of truth. He does, after all, have an MS with honors from Fitchburg State, so he's smarter than we are.

As you and I are maintaining, we'll see who's right.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Love how this has become personal. What else would we expect from the dBoard. Live the nickname... Creative. I bet Fitchburg state would have been much more fun than where I went. But that's immaterial... Except to you it seems. Let's try to achieve something here. Inform but don't inflame. Educate but don't attack. The smartest people in the world whose lives are dedicated to Infectious Disease are saying it will infect the majority of our population. Even at a 1% mortality rate that could mean hundreds of thousands dead if not more. Stay safe and be smart. This isn't a simulation

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Love how this has become personal. What else would we expect from the dBoard. Live the nickname... Creative. I bet Fitchburg state would have been much more fun than where I went. But that's immaterial... Except to you it seems. Let's try to achieve something here. Inform but don't inflame. Educate but don't attack. The smartest people in the world whose lives are dedicated to Infectious Disease are saying it will infect the majority of our population. Even at a 1% mortality rate that could mean hundreds of thousands dead if not more. Stay safe and be smart. This isn't a simulation
Try to have a sense of humor. It's a hockey board. Trash talk is part of the culture. It isn't "personal." If you can't cut it, try Pinterest.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

1159 in Massachusetts alone now. The total cases for the entire USA 11 days ago, Friday, March 13th was 2,000. The sooner we all take this seriously the better.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)

Keep taking your no hope benders to 3v3 and skills skates. These
Numbers won’t slow down until you mouth breathers change behaviors. But go ahead and have that Chloroquine ready, just in case.... I’m sure it’ll come through if you’re in a pickle.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

NoHope
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)

Keep taking your no hope benders to 3v3 and skills skates. These
Numbers won’t slow down until you mouth breathers change behaviors. But go ahead and have that Chloroquine ready, just in case.... I’m sure it’ll come through if you’re in a pickle.
No Hope?

Wow, you must be a blast to be around.

Do you have a wired internet connection in the shelter? If Wi-Fi can get there so can germs.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

No hope, as in your no hope bender. Do you read or just skim through like Donnie boy during his press conferences?

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

NoHope
No hope, as in your no hope bender. Do you read or just skim through like Donnie boy during his press conferences?
Wasn't a whole lot of context there, Dr. Doom.

I think that YOU think you communicate on some higher plane.

Looks like we're finding out why you usually just troll.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Your intellectual inferiority complex is boring, I stopped caring about how you hate yourself for feeling dumb around posters who contribute math and science to this thread 3 days ago. Either contribute something of substance or move it along. You’re trolling someone who you think is a troll, what’s that make you, Einstein?

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

ForChristSakeAlready
Your intellectual inferiority complex is boring, I stopped caring about how you hate yourself for feeling dumb around posters who contribute math and science to this thread 3 days ago. Either contribute something of substance or move it along. You’re trolling someone who you think is a troll, what’s that make you, Einstein?
Haha, I will compare brain pans with you any day of the week, my friend. I just don't feel the need to flaunt my degrees and certifications.

Like I said, keep coming back every day. We'll see how long your precious model holds up.

Oh, and grow up, Poindexter. This ain't a science lab.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

OP here - you may not realize this but there are at least three "poindexters" on this thread. You seem to think there is one (me). Not quite. Interesting description though as "your precious model" - it's the epidemiological profile of the virus asshat. The virus' model is holding up consistently from day 1. At what point do you realize that? I'm the one saying 15,000 by tax day. It will be true barring any significant changes in our practices. This isn't a contest to compare degrees but this topic does seem out of your knowledge base. Stick to Fed vs E9 posts.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
OP here - you may not realize this but there are at least three "poindexters" on this thread. You seem to think there is one (me). Not quite. Interesting description though as "your precious model" - it's the epidemiological profile of the virus asshat. The virus' model is holding up consistently from day 1. At what point do you realize that? I'm the one saying 15,000 by tax day. It will be true barring any significant changes in our practices. This isn't a contest to compare degrees but this topic does seem out of your knowledge base. Stick to Fed vs E9 posts.
Well, OP, I'll say the same to you, and any other doomsayers in this thread. Have the cojones to keep coming back when it doesn't happen.

Amazing how anyone that agrees with you is smart and when anyone disagrees with you it's "out of your knowledge base."

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

I'll definitely check back and hope I'm wrong. I'm also using my name instead of Anon so you'll know it's me. This isn't about cajones or a ******* contest.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Jim M
I\'ll definitely check back and hope I\'m wrong. I\'m also using my name instead of Anon so you\'ll know it\'s me. This isn\'t about cajones or a ******* contest.
I hope you're wrong, too. :)

I was having a bit of fun trash-talking you and your buddies, but at the heart of it all is, we need to strike a balance between conveying the seriousness of the virus, while stopping short of creating a panicked nation.

I'm an executive at one of the companies that is out in front of the global efforts to fight the disease, and has been since it broke in China. We are one of the leading manufacturers of diagnostic hardware and consumables. I attend regular briefings.

This "spike" in the U.S. is certainly the result of the strong initial spread of the virus. But, it is also caused in part by the rapid expansion of both kits and testing centers.

Massachusetts also got off to a strong start because of the Biogen meeting, which happened before we were ready to take the virus seriously in this country. That one meeting, single-handedly, is why Middlesex County is actually ahead of the much more densely populated Suffolk County (by a factor of 3 1/2 to 1) in reported cases - all the local executives live in Cambridge and the 'burbs. I believe that is what data scientists would call an "anomalous event."

I was SMDH yesterday when Johns Hopkins, which has become something of a "go to" data source for the general public, changed their methodology yesterday to add more red dots to the map. The impact on the web page display is profound. Optically, that isn't helping, and it smacks of a decision by someone with an agenda.

Mathematically, in geometric series, as the "N" gets larger it becomes increasingly difficult for anything to continue to grow at the same rate, because it has to grow on itself. Life isn't a controlled experiment. The other variables - and there are many here - aren't constants.

Rather than raw counts, I would love to see the data arrayed as a percent of tests. That would be more indicative of whether the curve is flattening. The data is available, but the reliability is spotty, because there's no real framework for reporting of test performed as there is for confirmed cases.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)

I’m the poindexter who continually posts the numbers, not because I’m morbid, not because I want to be right, but instead so numbnut hockey dads can see in real time how this was never a hoax, it was never just a flu, nor something that should’ve have been blown off. This has played out exactly as we were told from day one. 15 folks in MA have died already this month, and although by the numbers that isn’t a lot, they were someone’s mother, father, grandfather, grandmother, wife, or husband. We all need to take this seriously, change behaviors, for the sake of those around us with preexisting conditions who cannot or will not be able to fight this bug.

All of you stay safe. Try to stay inside as much as you can... please.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Poindexter
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)

I’m the poindexter who continually posts the numbers, not because I’m morbid, not because I want to be right, but instead so numbnut hockey dads can see in real time how this was never a hoax, it was never just a flu, nor something that should’ve have been blown off. This has played out exactly as we were told from day one. 15 folks in MA have died already this month, and although by the numbers that isn’t a lot, they were someone’s mother, father, grandfather, grandmother, wife, or husband. We all need to take this seriously, change behaviors, for the sake of those around us with preexisting conditions who cannot or will not be able to fight this bug.

All of you stay safe. Try to stay inside as much as you can... please.
The seasonal flu in MA this year has killed 122. But I guess those are acceptable.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

And we should count ourselves extremely lucky if, somehow, we come out of this with "only" 122 Covid-19 deaths.

The point is, and has been from the beginning, that this has the potential to go much, much higher.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

There’s a vaccine for the flu.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 ( 25 Deaths)

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