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Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Great post - specifically explaining the penetration of the virus and value of N. Unfortunately a target rich environment of uninflected hosts will exist for some time before it becomes a barrier to spreading. Quarantines will help. Ultimately we are all in this together. I know looking at our family schedule is somewhat sad as so many tryouts and spring sports are just empty placeholders. My two boys were looking forward to this weekends CCM high performance camp tryouts for months. Nope. More serious issues at hand.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

just sayin
ToldUso
Look at the MA numbers, then look up the definition of exponential, stupid.
It appears you are confusing multiplying, say doubling 2 4 8 16 (which it seems to be doing every week)
With exponential: as in a X to the Y power --- 2 4 16 256 65,536...
Jeez...first it was health advice I was getting from the dBoard, now I'm getting math lessons...isn't the dBoard great? :joy:

Talk about online schooling!

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Don’t forget grandpa asking us to rank the teams from the olden days, that’s a full day of homeschooling subjects right there.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

2,417 today. Increased by seven hundred cases each of the past two days. at this pace we will blow past 15,000 cases will before tax day. is that poster who wanted to make a bet still interested in betting? I wouldn't take the BET anyway. I just want everyone to realize how serious this is and to be safe. It is still following a predictive model

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Jim M
2,417 today. Increased by seven hundred cases each of the past two days. at this pace we will blow past 15,000 cases will before tax day. is that poster who wanted to make a bet still interested in betting? I wouldn't take the BET anyway. I just want everyone to realize how serious this is and to be safe. It is still following a predictive model
You're right, of course. The predictive model that tells us more than 150,000 cases by April 15th and that the virus will have been confirmed in every man, woman and child in the state less than two weeks after that.

Of course, I have a hard time putting much stock in someone that thinks 679 (yesterday's new cases as reported in this thread) and 579 (today) are actually more than 700. I may need to get new batteries for my calculator.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Rounding estimates. Still will surpass a number that was mocked just 6 days ago. The message should be the same. Distance and practice sound hand hygiene. It will slow but not for awhile. The 579 cases today were infected 10-14 days ago

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Jim M
Rounding estimates. Still will surpass a number that was mocked just 6 days ago. The message should be the same. Distance and practice sound hand hygiene. It will slow but not for awhile. The 579 cases today were infected 10-14 days ago
Wow, you have a real issue with admitting you're wrong, don't you?

Yeah, I round up by 20% all the time.

Bet your wife rounds up by even more than that when she talks with her girlfriends.

Oh and the incubation period is 2 to 14 days, not 10 - 14 days, with a median of 5.5 days, according to one study. To help you out, "median" is a point of central tendency. It means the incubation period was shorter than 5.5 days in as many cases as it was longer than 5.5 days.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

You're such a frigging ******* troll. Seriously. Keyboard warrior trying so hard to focus on the micro missing the macro. Not sure where you've been along this now almost two weeks long discussion but the macro is correct. Those of you dismissing this or saying the predictions were nothing but an over reaction - WRONG. Day 1 I followed the CDC predictive model. Nuance changes and fluctuations will always occur but the bottom line is unchanged. 15,000 cases in MA by tax day with 1-3% fatalities. ICUs are beginning to be overrun. Do you even know a medical professional? Ask them. Good god, you're such a ***** who will surely get the beat down he deserves. I have zero issue admitting being wrong. Look back to the beginning of this thread and see wherever you posted. This is a train. Not slowing. I'll check out now and hop back by the 15th. I hope *******s like you take the medical and scientific advice seriously. I would hate to waste my healthcare resources or time if you were my patient. Others who made the effort to protect themselves and not minimize this deserve and will receive my care. ****** Oh, and I've quarantined myself from my wife and three children because of the risk seeing patients all day long and fear of infecting them. Leave them out of this. *****