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Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Poindexter
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)

I’m the poindexter who continually posts the numbers, not because I’m morbid, not because I want to be right, but instead so numbnut hockey dads can see in real time how this was never a hoax, it was never just a flu, nor something that should’ve have been blown off. This has played out exactly as we were told from day one. 15 folks in MA have died already this month, and although by the numbers that isn’t a lot, they were someone’s mother, father, grandfather, grandmother, wife, or husband. We all need to take this seriously, change behaviors, for the sake of those around us with preexisting conditions who cannot or will not be able to fight this bug.

All of you stay safe. Try to stay inside as much as you can... please.
The seasonal flu in MA this year has killed 122. But I guess those are acceptable.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

And we should count ourselves extremely lucky if, somehow, we come out of this with "only" 122 Covid-19 deaths.

The point is, and has been from the beginning, that this has the potential to go much, much higher.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

There’s a vaccine for the flu.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 ( 25 Deaths)

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Poindexter
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 ( 25 Deaths)
it's over. No spring sports. Be lucky to see you all in August for pre season hockey camp. Stay strong key keyboard warriors!

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

?
Poindexter
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 ( 25 Deaths)
it\'s over. No spring sports. Be lucky to see you all in August for pre season hockey camp. Stay strong key keyboard warriors!
Just received the cancellation of a mid-August baseball tournament. For the first time, I am starting to have concerns for the fall season. Forget the spring and at least the early summer.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
?
Poindexter
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 ( 25 Deaths)
it\\\\\\\'s over. No spring sports. Be lucky to see you all in August for pre season hockey camp. Stay strong key keyboard warriors!
Just received the cancellation of a mid-August baseball tournament. For the first time, I am starting to have concerns for the fall season. Forget the spring and at least the early summer.
Yet, the NHL is still pursuing alternatives that have the 2019/20 season extending into August and September.

So, who likely has better information, the NHL, or a baseball tournament director?

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

anon
Anon
?
Poindexter
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 ( 25 Deaths)
it\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s over. No spring sports. Be lucky to see you all in August for pre season hockey camp. Stay strong key keyboard warriors!
Just received the cancellation of a mid-August baseball tournament. For the first time, I am starting to have concerns for the fall season. Forget the spring and at least the early summer.
Yet, the NHL is still pursuing alternatives that have the 2019/20 season extending into August and September.

So, who likely has better information, the NHL, or a baseball tournament director?
The considerations, imperatives and economics of youth sports vs professional leagues with television contracts with billions in revenue, liability for millions of in-person attendees and thousands of employees are very different. So, your comment seems irrelevant.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 (25 Deaths)
3/27 = 3240 (35 Deaths)

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Mass. Population 7 Million - Mass. Coronavirus Cases 2,417 (.0345%) - Mass. Corona Deaths 25 (0.01%) - Mass. Flu Cases Approx 1 Million (14%) - Mass. Flu Deaths Approx 1,000 (0.10%).

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon.
Mass. Population 7 Million - Mass. Coronavirus Cases 2,417 (.0345%) - Mass. Corona Deaths 25 (0.01%) - Mass. Flu Cases Approx 1 Million (14%) - Mass. Flu Deaths Approx 1,000 (0.10%).
Say flu season starts in October. You are comparing 6 months of flu to 27 days in March. Give the Corona Virus 5 more months and compare the data. My $ on Corona beating the flu like the IHC 06 team beating the Bandits06 8-0. Gonna be a blowout.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon.
Mass. Population 7 Million - Mass. Coronavirus Cases 2,417 (.0345%) - Mass. Corona Deaths 25 (0.01%) - Mass. Flu Cases Approx 1 Million (14%) - Mass. Flu Deaths Approx 1,000 (0.10%).
Dully noted.

#1 There’s a vaccine for the flu, there isn’t one for coronavirus.
#2 Corona virus only recently jumped into humans December 2019 and we’ve already seen 590,421 infections and 26,950 deaths worldwide.
#3 Not doubting your numbers at all, but can you go back into your numbers and find out the number of common flu deaths in Mass since 3/1/2020. That way we can compare apples to apples.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

1st confirmed case of Coronavirus in the United States was on Jan. 21. That's 66 days.
Oct 1 to Mar 27 equals 179 days. 54 million U.S. flu cases & 59,000 deaths divided by 179 equals 301,676 flu cases per day & 329.6 flu deaths per day.
85,724 U.S. Coronavirus cases & 1,275 deaths in 66 days equals 1,299 Corona cases per day & 19.32 deaths per day.

Since Oct. 1st (179 days) Mass. flu cases equal 5,587 cases per day & 5.59 deaths per day. Total Mass. Coronavirus cases 2,417 & 25 Deaths.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

It’ll take another week or two for the social distancing to slow the rate of infections. And although people will still become infected, it won’t be at such a pace as it currently is. Then add another two or three for hospitals to depressurization from the sheer amount of patients coming through the door. Stands to reason late May to mid June is the earliest youth sports leagues can even think of ramping back up.

It’s going to get worst for a little while longer before it gets better. Stay safe everyone.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Poindexter
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 (25 Deaths)
3/27 = 3240 (35 Deaths)
Rather than just regurgitating numbers, why not provide some analytics?

I looked, and several things struck me.

One, Mass.gov has started reporting the number of tests, along with the number of positive tests. I earlier said tracking the percentage of positive tests would be more valuable than just the raw number.

15% of the people tested in the past day came back positive. That's compared to 10% to date. Statistically, that's a big jump.

Two, the demographics in MA seem to be anomalous. We have more confirmed cases in every age group from 20 to 59 than we do in the supposed "at risk" age groups of 60 and above.

20 - 29 567
30 = 39 581
40 - 49 526
50 - 59 597
-----------
60 - 69 442
70+ 462

We also have more confirmed cases in women than in men, 1,623 to 1,603. Men have been more than twice as likely to have contracted the virus in China and in the rest of the world. So, that's a meaningful difference.

And, finally, population density is taking hold. The number of cases in Suffolk County has increased 85% in two days, versus 54% in Middlesex County. By tomorrow, Suffolk county will take the lead in the state.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Poindexter
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 (25 Deaths)
3/27 = 3240 (35 Deaths)
Rather than just regurgitating numbers, why not provide some analytics?

I looked, and several things struck me.

One, Mass.gov has started reporting the number of tests, along with the number of positive tests. I earlier said tracking the percentage of positive tests would be more valuable than just the raw number.

15% of the people tested in the past day came back positive. That\'s compared to 10% to date. Statistically, that\'s a big jump.

Two, the demographics in MA seem to be anomalous. We have more confirmed cases in every age group from 20 to 59 than we do in the supposed \"at risk\" age groups of 60 and above.

20 - 29 567
30 = 39 581
40 - 49 526
50 - 59 597
-----------
60 - 69 442
70+ 462

We also have more confirmed cases in women than in men, 1,623 to 1,603. Men have been more than twice as likely to have contracted the virus in China and in the rest of the world. So, that\'s a meaningful difference.

And, finally, population density is taking hold. The number of cases in Suffolk County has increased 85% in two days, versus 54% in Middlesex County. By tomorrow, Suffolk county will take the lead in the state.
No response from Jim or Poindexter.

Proof that they aren't actually interested in the issue, only in being right.

Stay tuned. I sense the demise of the model is near.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Not interested? I am directly providing patient care during this crisis. You?
Data still pouring in. See what the data was today for Massachusetts? Cases went up by over a thousand (over 30%) with 9 more deaths, up 25% to 44 total.

I could give two ****s about being right. This is to get asshats like you to believe this is real and stay off the streets while idiots like me risk our own lives to help others. What a tool you are. Still on pace (easily) to surpass 15,000 by tax day.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Jim M
Not interested? I am directly providing patient care during this crisis. You?
Data still pouring in. See what the data was today for Massachusetts? Cases went up by over a thousand (over 30%) with 9 more deaths, up 25% to 44 total.

I could give two ****s about being right. This is to get asshats like you to believe this is real and stay off the streets while idiots like me risk our own lives to help others. What a tool you are. Still on pace (easily) to surpass 15,000 by tax day.
I'd respond but, you'd get upset again...

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 (25 Deaths)
3/27 = 3240 (35 Deaths)
3/28 = 4257 (44 Deaths)

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 (25 Deaths)
3/27 = 3240 (35 Deaths)
3/28 = 4257 (44 Deaths)
Awesome --- at this rate the entire population of MA will be infected by 4/16.
Trump was right, we can be open by Easter (+/-)

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Just sayin
Anon
3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 (25 Deaths)
3/27 = 3240 (35 Deaths)
3/28 = 4257 (44 Deaths)
Awesome --- at this rate the entire population of MA will be infected by 4/16.
Trump was right, we can be open by Easter (+/-)
Yup, let's all just get the virus and move on with out lives!

If my wife weren't high risk I think I'd prefer that solution.

Hmmmmm, wait a sec.....

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Even though theses drugs have cured people worldwide and the FDA has issued an emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, decades-old malaria drugs, championed by President Donald Trump for coronavirus treatment, several Dem. and never Trumper Governors have issued Executive Orders outlawing the prescribing & distribution of these life-saving drugs. All this isn't political, yeh right!

Rice University historian Douglas Brinkley, who is working on a book about the environmental movement of the 1960s and ‘70s, is hopeful that another reaction to COVID-19 will be a more urgent focus on curbing climate change. All this isn't political, yeh right!

At least we all now know what it’s like to live in a Socialist/Communist country where the government decides what its citizens are allowed to do, where they can go, who gets medical treatment, who & where they can work, only politicians and those working for the government get paid and everyone else needs to rely on the government for money and basic needs, shortages & rationing, etc., etc., etc. Keep this going and the USSA may not be far behind?

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Another non scientist/medical professional chiming in. How do I know this? Because no educated medical individual would even attribute the word "cure" to something that just started clinical trials last week.

Now to the political BS of your post. Read the Governor of Nevada's Executive Order. It only restricts the prescribing of those medications to emergency room or hospital doctors. They are not allowed to be prescribed in an outpatient setting. This makes perfect clinical sense and prevents the unnecessary hoarding or prescribing of these medications that may be one day proven to be helpful while allowing trials with the very ill Covid-19 patients. But you go ahead and keep watching the conservative bul**** spin. Here is the order.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/local-nevada/sisolak-signs-restriction-order-for-2-drugs-1990149/

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Cured: To relieve a person of the symptoms of a disease or condition. I guess that definition is too simple for your elitist I know best for everyone mindset.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon.
Cured: To relieve a person of the symptoms of a disease or condition. I guess that definition is too simple for your elitist I know best for everyone mindset.
Shhhhh...Jim M. doesn't like to be challenged. He tends to get overwrought, and it dilutes his focus.

I understood your meaning, that these drugs have "cured" people for decades, and that continues today. And not every country has the same level of delayed response from the FDA needing to cover their butts with 7 layers of teflon.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Actually, yesterday the FDA issued an emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for coronavirus treatment. Coronavirus patients, including several Americans, have stated these drugs cured them, including a few close to death.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

98-99% of Americans survive coronavirus. If they were all given pizza from the Canton IceHouse, all but 1-2 out of a hundred would recover. That's why we use something called experimental design. Anecdotes are not evidence. As much as I am hopeful that hydroxychloroquine or anything else is a treatment, as of now there is no EVIDENCE. Only anecdotes. Even the "study" in Spain, which is a case study of 80 people, 1 died. That's the same mortality we are seeing now. If you've presented a study to an institutional IRB using human subjects you would know this. I have. Let's hope these work but don't present them as final "cures". No scientist or medical person would do that with so little data. Amazing how people on this board will argue freaking everything, even when they have zero background. Should rename to "The Dunning Kruger Hockey and other nonsense board". Stay inside and hope a treatment is shown to be effective from an actual study.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Jim M
98-99% of Americans survive coronavirus. If they were all given pizza from the Canton IceHouse, all but 1-2 out of a hundred would recover. That's why we use something called experimental design. Anecdotes are not evidence. As much as I am hopeful that hydroxychloroquine or anything else is a treatment, as of now there is no EVIDENCE. Only anecdotes. Even the "study" in Spain, which is a case study of 80 people, 1 died. That's the same mortality we are seeing now. If you've presented a study to an institutional IRB using human subjects you would know this. I have. Let's hope these work but don't present them as final "cures". No scientist or medical person would do that with so little data. Amazing how people on this board will argue freaking everything, even when they have zero background. Should rename to "The Dunning Kruger Hockey and other nonsense board". Stay inside and hope a treatment is shown to be effective from an actual study.
That's right, because you are the expert at everything. No one else knows jack **** compared to you. No one else has any background to be able to comment. Only you, and you alone. You are the world's one and only expert.

You'd better go now, Dr. Fauci is on the line, it's 17 minutes until his next briefing.

What an arrogant di ck.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

I can see why I come across as condescending. It's not my intent but when such clear misunderstanding about the scientific process occurs, it needs to be called out. Yes. I've done research. Yes it's been published. It's not simply an anecdote or two. Sorry if I'm being a dick. Feel I need to

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

anon
Jim M
98-99% of Americans survive coronavirus. If they were all given pizza from the Canton IceHouse, all but 1-2 out of a hundred would recover. That\'s why we use something called experimental design. Anecdotes are not evidence. As much as I am hopeful that hydroxychloroquine or anything else is a treatment, as of now there is no EVIDENCE. Only anecdotes. Even the \"study\" in Spain, which is a case study of 80 people, 1 died. That\'s the same mortality we are seeing now. If you\'ve presented a study to an institutional IRB using human subjects you would know this. I have. Let\'s hope these work but don\'t present them as final \"cures\". No scientist or medical person would do that with so little data. Amazing how people on this board will argue freaking everything, even when they have zero background. Should rename to \"The Dunning Kruger Hockey and other nonsense board\". Stay inside and hope a treatment is shown to be effective from an actual study.
That's right, because you are the expert at everything. No one else knows jack **** compared to you. No one else has any background to be able to comment. Only you, and you alone. You are the world's one and only expert.

You'd better go now, Dr. Fauci is on the line, it's 17 minutes until his next briefing.

What an arrogant di ck.
Touchy much? The FDA approval is somewhat contradictory with what scientists say. Given that the FDA is a government agency, I probably would go with the scientist, but that’s just my opinion. There is very little scientific data to support that hydroxychloroquine is curing corona. That’s it.
But keep calling everyone an *******. That’s cool too.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Jim M
98-99% of Americans survive coronavirus. If they were all given pizza from the Canton IceHouse, all but 1-2 out of a hundred would recover. That\'s why we use something called experimental design. Anecdotes are not evidence. As much as I am hopeful that hydroxychloroquine or anything else is a treatment, as of now there is no EVIDENCE. Only anecdotes. Even the \"study\" in Spain, which is a case study of 80 people, 1 died. That\'s the same mortality we are seeing now. If you\'ve presented a study to an institutional IRB using human subjects you would know this. I have. Let\'s hope these work but don\'t present them as final \"cures\". No scientist or medical person would do that with so little data. Amazing how people on this board will argue freaking everything, even when they have zero background. Should rename to \"The Dunning Kruger Hockey and other nonsense board\". Stay inside and hope a treatment is shown to be effective from an actual study.
I see you’re a big fan of Dr. Fauci’s doomsday scenario projections. Who said anything about this being a final cure. All your so-called studies do not change the fact that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have cured individuals suffering from the coronavirus.

You are obviously working and getting paid. So apparently you do not care about the millions of Americans who have lost their jobs and will lose their businesses. If we do it Dr. Fauci’s and you’re way we need to wait 12-18 months for a final cure. What do you think the state/country will look like if we keep the entire country shut down for another 12-18 months? Or has it been you and your cohorts intent all along to destroy the USA as we know it.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Are you nuts? For starters dr. Fauci knows more about this than anyone on the planet. I would never ever even think to put myself in the same conversation as him.

Your comment about me hoping that the country shuts down for 12 to 18 months is insulting and laughable at the same time. Yes I am working. I am working treating patients. the wave of patients presenting positive is going to hit big this week. If you think I welcome that you're a bigger ass hole then I could ever have imagined. there was a time in life to accept science for what it is. This isn't opinion. This isn't a discussion about hockey. People are dying and many many many more will die. I'm not sure if you were one of the many that laughed off my statement two weeks ago that 15,000 in Massachusetts will have this by April 15th. I wish I were wrong and I wish the science was wrong. It is not

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Wow. Treating all those dying patients; developing, researching and submitting scientific studies; and still having time to go on a youth hockey dboard to insult & bully everyone that disagrees with your elitist attitude. You must be a real Renaissance Man. So Mr. Know It All, when should the rest of us peasants be allowed to leave our houses and go back to making a living or save our businesses so we can put food on our tables, pay the rent, and the rest of our bills? When will people be allowed to worship, get married, visit friends and family, etc.? When will kids be allowed to go back to school, play in the park or just be allowed to be kids. 2 months, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months? Please tell us most wise one.

By the way, In Mass. there have been approx 1 Million cases of the flu and approx 1,000 deaths this season. I guess those cases & deaths are expendable.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Third straight day of a declining percentage of new cases, both nationally and in MA. After seeing some serious exponential 30% - 60% daily growth in confirmed cases in MA - the spike I was referring to following the broad release of test kits here in the U.S. March 16th - the daily growth rate has declined from 34% to 31% to 16% to 16% since Friday.

16% daily growth equates to doubling about every five days, BTW.

I'm NOT saying we shouldn't take it seriously. NYC/NJ are ******, with about half the new cases nationally being from there.

I also don't think we need to not look for hopeful signs or hear about 100,000 deaths.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Third straight day of a declining percentage of new cases, both nationally and in MA. After seeing some serious exponential 30% - 60% daily growth in confirmed cases in MA - the spike I was referring to following the broad release of test kits here in the U.S. March 16th - the daily growth rate has declined from 34% to 31% to 16% to 16% since Friday.

16% daily growth equates to doubling about every five days, BTW.

I\'m NOT saying we shouldn\'t take it seriously. NYC/NJ are ******, with about half the new cases nationally being from there.

I also don\'t think we need to not look for hopeful signs or hear about 100,000 deaths.
Oh, lookie, a fourth straight day with a decline in the percent of new cases. 15% today.

At the current rate of growth, the number of cases in MA will be 61,000 by tax day.

But, but, it was supposed to be 150,000, easy?

I'm not an epidemiologist, but I do know how compounding works.

Keep coming back, Jim and Poindexter. Maybe you'll get lucky and things will get worse again.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 (25 Deaths)
3/27 = 3240 (35 Deaths)
3/28 = 4257 (44 Deaths)
3/30 = 5752 (56 Deaths)
3/31 = 6620 (89 Deaths)

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

I've said from day 1 it would be 15,000 by tax day. Look back. Ass

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Jim M
I've said from day 1 it would be 15,000 by tax day. Look back. Ass
And seeing how they moved 'tax day' to July 15th, you just might be right. :clap:

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

You've been trashing this guy from the start. Pushing back with your own numbers saying its panic. It looks like he's right. No?

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

This never ends does it?

You say you know how compounding works. Let's pretend the growth every day moving forward is 15%. Is that linear or exponential growth?

Answer-exponential. Run the numbers. The 15% growth is of the day prior's total. It includes the 15% increase from the prior day. This is compounding. This is exponential. Only when the new daily cases begin to drop will we have hope it is slowing. Record growth in national cases, Massachusetts cases, national deaths, and Massachusetts deaths just today. Why oh why are you trying so hard to minimize this? We're all in it together. It sucks. But it's real.

The exponential growth may have slowed but it's still exponential. Run a logarithmic analysis if you want. You'll see

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Jim M
This never ends does it?

You say you know how compounding works. Let's pretend the growth every day moving forward is 15%. Is that linear or exponential growth?

Answer-exponential. Run the numbers. The 15% growth is of the day prior's total. It includes the 15% increase from the prior day. This is compounding. This is exponential. Only when the new daily cases begin to drop will we have hope it is slowing. Record growth in national cases, Massachusetts cases, national deaths, and Massachusetts deaths just today. Why oh why are you trying so hard to minimize this? We're all in it together. It sucks. But it's real.

The exponential growth may have slowed but it's still exponential. Run a logarithmic analysis if you want. You'll see
You're not the only one throwing numbers around. In the words of Sean Maguire, "It's not about you, you mathematical di ck!"

An earlier poster said the number of cases was doubling every day. Another said every three days.

But, just keep insisting you're smart, and everyone else is stupid. Ir's quite endearing.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Not elitist DB. I came on here to offer my concerns regarding something I know a little about. Guys like you trashed me when I warned we would have 15,000 cases and 200 deaths in Massachusetts by tax day and to follow the guidance of the medical professionals. Turns out I will have been correct.

Try to realize I didn't bring this virus to our shores. You may be angry but your anger should be directed to the bug.

Please also stop comparing it to the flu. For context, this flu season, more active than most, still only had a hospitalization rate of 67 per 100,000. Coronavirus has a death rate in MA of greater than 900 per 100,000 with a hospitalization rate around 14,000. Do you not see the huge difference? Spend some time with your bender(s) and stop taking your anger out on people trying to help.

Whatever you do for a living, I'm sure people would seek your advice in that area of expertise. Don't think for a second I get joy in seeing the numbers hit exactly what I predicted when MA hadn't even had 100 cases. I'm not happy in any way and put my and my families life at risk doing what I do for a living. Italy just had its 63rd doctor die and 8,300 healthcare workers test positive

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

3/1 = 0
3/4 = 1
3/6 = 7
3/7 = 13
3/8 = 30
3/10 = 92
3/15 = 164
3/16 = 197
3/18 = 256
3/19 = 328
3/21 = 525 (1 Death)
3/22 = 646 (5 Deaths)
3/24 = 1159 (11 Deaths)
3/25 = 1838 (15 Deaths)
3/26 = 2417 (25 Deaths)
3/27 = 3240 (35 Deaths)
3/28 = 4257 (44 Deaths)
3/30 = 5752 (56 Deaths)

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

We are not comparing the Coronavirus to the flu. I, just like many people, want to know why when 1 million people in Mass have the flu with approx 1,000 deaths and U.S. flu cases this season are upwards of 54 Million with 710,000 Hospitalized & 59,000 Deaths and yet there is no mention of a statewide/countrywide shutdown for the flu. And a couple of years back when almost 80,000 Americans died from the flu there was no mention of a shutdown.

The argument that there is no cure for the Coronavirus is a red hearing. Deaths are deaths. Many healthy young people die of the flu every year. Upwards of 61,000 Americans die every year from the flu. Deaths are deaths. Yet never a mention of a shutdown for the flu. One can only wonder if there isn’t an ulterior motive for a statewide/countrywide shutdown at this point in time.

Coronavirus for the most part kills older adults with health issues. A significant amount of the Coronavirus deaths have occurred in nursing homes. Older adults with health issues can be isolated from the general population without shutting down the entire state/country.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon.
We are not comparing the Coronavirus to the flu. I, just like many people, want to know why when 1 million people in Mass have the flu with approx 1,000 deaths and U.S. flu cases this season are upwards of 54 Million with 710,000 Hospitalized & 59,000 Deaths and yet there is no mention of a statewide/countrywide shutdown for the flu. And a couple of years back when almost 80,000 Americans died from the flu there was no mention of a shutdown.

The argument that there is no cure for the Coronavirus is a red hearing. Deaths are deaths. Many healthy young people die of the flu every year. Upwards of 61,000 Americans die every year from the flu. Deaths are deaths. Yet never a mention of a shutdown for the flu. One can only wonder if there isn’t an ulterior motive for a statewide/countrywide shutdown at this point in time.

Coronavirus for the most part kills older adults with health issues. A significant amount of the Coronavirus deaths have occurred in nursing homes. Older adults with health issues can be isolated from the general population without shutting down the entire state/country.
When’s the last time you saw every major sport in the world completely shutdown indefinitely?

And the flu comparison is so ignorant and flat out dumb it doesn’t even warrant a response-

You’re a complete moron and a danger to society.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Typical Lib response. Call the person names when they can't answer the question. Now answer the question. Why wasn't the state/country shutdown the year 80,000 Americans died from the flu?

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon.
Typical Lib response. Call the person names when they can\'t answer the question. Now answer the question. Why wasn\'t the state/country shutdown the year 80,000 Americans died from the flu?
Was the healthcare system in danger of being overrun when the 80,000 people died over the course of the entire flu season?

Again, you’re very ignorant.

You don’t know how to answer directly! You dope-

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

80,000 American flu deaths over 6 months are okay. 3,175 Coronavirus deaths over 2.5 months are catastrophic. I got it. Now I see why you’re the genius and I’m the moron.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon.
80,000 American flu deaths over 6 months are okay. 3,175 Coronavirus deaths over 2.5 months are catastrophic. I got it. Now I see why you’re the genius and I’m the moron.
Anon.
You obviously didn't attend a school of higher education.
No one is going to mistake you for an epidemiologist or a biostatistician.
I won't even try to explain predictive models to you.

Stick to hockey since it takes far fewer working brain cells than science.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

I'm not sure you care about the reason. It has already been provided.

I'll try.

First off, absolutely losing 80,000 Americans to the flu is tragic. I don't know the percentage of those who died that were not immunized but it is historically higher than the general population.

Comparing the two - and this is the important factor- influenza has an approximate hospitalization rate of 67 patients per 100,000 infected..with a death rate if 10 per 100,000. The coronavirus, by best estimates, has a hospitalization rate of 14,000-18,000 per 100,000 infected. The DEATH rate is above 900 per 100,000 cases. The flu, as bad as it is, has NEVER overrun hospitals (aside from 1918).

Also, this pandemic is still getting started. Each day will be worse than the prior. Each week will be worse than the prior week for a month, if not more. Not long from now we will be hitting 2,000 deaths a day. That doesn't happen with the flu. There is no vaccine or immunity to a novel virus.

This is not the flu. It's not even close. Stay home.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Jim M
I'm not sure you care about the reason. It has already been provided.

I'll try.

First off, absolutely losing 80,000 Americans to the flu is tragic. I don't know the percentage of those who died that were not immunized but it is historically higher than the general population.

Comparing the two - and this is the important factor- influenza has an approximate hospitalization rate of 67 patients per 100,000 infected..with a death rate if 10 per 100,000. The coronavirus, by best estimates, has a hospitalization rate of 14,000-18,000 per 100,000 infected. The DEATH rate is above 900 per 100,000 cases. The flu, as bad as it is, has NEVER overrun hospitals (aside from 1918).

Also, this pandemic is still getting started. Each day will be worse than the prior. Each week will be worse than the prior week for a month, if not more. Not long from now we will be hitting 2,000 deaths a day. That doesn't happen with the flu. There is no vaccine or immunity to a novel virus.

This is not the flu. It's not even close. Stay home.
Dr. Jim

We appreciate your efforts in your office and on these boards. Please ignore these mouth breathers who think they know as much as you (or Fauci) about infectious diseases- on account they watch Q Anon YouTube videos. They have a severe inferiority complex.

These are the same dolts who thought this was a hoax, who say the media is driving a “panic”, who think Trump has been a wonderful manager during this pandemic, who call it a “Chinese” virus, and who think they are suddenly subject matter experts in Hydroxychloroquine (something they’ve never heard of up until 2 weeks ago)

They watch mind bending wing nut media that has convinced them that Facebook and YouTube bring forth the people’s truth and Actual factual news is fake. They are too far gone to have any meaningful conversation.

Sincerely,
Everyone else

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Jim M
I\\\'m not sure you care about the reason. It has already been provided.

I\\\'ll try.

First off, absolutely losing 80,000 Americans to the flu is tragic. I don\\\'t know the percentage of those who died that were not immunized but it is historically higher than the general population.

Comparing the two - and this is the important factor- influenza has an approximate hospitalization rate of 67 patients per 100,000 infected..with a death rate if 10 per 100,000. The coronavirus, by best estimates, has a hospitalization rate of 14,000-18,000 per 100,000 infected. The DEATH rate is above 900 per 100,000 cases. The flu, as bad as it is, has NEVER overrun hospitals (aside from 1918).

Also, this pandemic is still getting started. Each day will be worse than the prior. Each week will be worse than the prior week for a month, if not more. Not long from now we will be hitting 2,000 deaths a day. That doesn\\\'t happen with the flu. There is no vaccine or immunity to a novel virus.

This is not the flu. It\\\'s not even close. Stay home.
Dr. Jim

We appreciate your efforts in your office and on these boards. Please ignore these mouth breathers who think they know as much as you (or Fauci) about infectious diseases- on account they watch Q Anon YouTube videos. They have a severe inferiority complex.

These are the same dolts who thought this was a hoax, who say the media is driving a “panic”, who think Trump has been a wonderful manager during this pandemic, who call it a “Chinese” virus, and who think they are suddenly subject matter experts in Hydroxychloroquine (something they’ve never heard of up until 2 weeks ago)

They watch mind bending wing nut media that has convinced them that Facebook and YouTube bring forth the people’s truth and Actual factual news is fake. They are too far gone to have any meaningful conversation.

Sincerely,
Everyone else
Don't speak for me. You don't have that right. it's arrogant of you to think you can.

And Jim is not a doctor. Not even close.

In the end, I'm willing to bet the mouth breathers end up closer to the statistical truth than Fauci.

And please enough with the political rhetoric. Past flus have been labeled based on where they started and nobody cared.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Anon
Jim M
I\\\\\\\'m not sure you care about the reason. It has already been provided.

I\\\\\\\'ll try.

First off, absolutely losing 80,000 Americans to the flu is tragic. I don\\\\\\\'t know the percentage of those who died that were not immunized but it is historically higher than the general population.

Comparing the two - and this is the important factor- influenza has an approximate hospitalization rate of 67 patients per 100,000 infected..with a death rate if 10 per 100,000. The coronavirus, by best estimates, has a hospitalization rate of 14,000-18,000 per 100,000 infected. The DEATH rate is above 900 per 100,000 cases. The flu, as bad as it is, has NEVER overrun hospitals (aside from 1918).

Also, this pandemic is still getting started. Each day will be worse than the prior. Each week will be worse than the prior week for a month, if not more. Not long from now we will be hitting 2,000 deaths a day. That doesn\\\\\\\'t happen with the flu. There is no vaccine or immunity to a novel virus.

This is not the flu. It\\\\\\\'s not even close. Stay home.
Dr. Jim

We appreciate your efforts in your office and on these boards. Please ignore these mouth breathers who think they know as much as you (or Fauci) about infectious diseases- on account they watch Q Anon YouTube videos. They have a severe inferiority complex.

These are the same dolts who thought this was a hoax, who say the media is driving a “panic”, who think Trump has been a wonderful manager during this pandemic, who call it a “Chinese” virus, and who think they are suddenly subject matter experts in Hydroxychloroquine (something they’ve never heard of up until 2 weeks ago)

They watch mind bending wing nut media that has convinced them that Facebook and YouTube bring forth the people’s truth and Actual factual news is fake. They are too far gone to have any meaningful conversation.

Sincerely,
Everyone else
Don't speak for me. You don't have that right. it's arrogant of you to think you can.

And Jim is not a doctor. Not even close.

In the end, I'm willing to bet the mouth breathers end up closer to the statistical truth than Fauci.

And please enough with the political rhetoric. Past flus have been labeled based on where they started and nobody cared.
Like the Kansas flu right?

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon
Anon
Jim M
I\\\\\\\'m not sure you care about the reason. It has already been provided.

I\\\\\\\'ll try.

First off, absolutely losing 80,000 Americans to the flu is tragic. I don\\\\\\\'t know the percentage of those who died that were not immunized but it is historically higher than the general population.

Comparing the two - and this is the important factor- influenza has an approximate hospitalization rate of 67 patients per 100,000 infected..with a death rate if 10 per 100,000. The coronavirus, by best estimates, has a hospitalization rate of 14,000-18,000 per 100,000 infected. The DEATH rate is above 900 per 100,000 cases. The flu, as bad as it is, has NEVER overrun hospitals (aside from 1918).

Also, this pandemic is still getting started. Each day will be worse than the prior. Each week will be worse than the prior week for a month, if not more. Not long from now we will be hitting 2,000 deaths a day. That doesn\\\\\\\'t happen with the flu. There is no vaccine or immunity to a novel virus.

This is not the flu. It\\\\\\\'s not even close. Stay home.
Dr. Jim

We appreciate your efforts in your office and on these boards. Please ignore these mouth breathers who think they know as much as you (or Fauci) about infectious diseases- on account they watch Q Anon YouTube videos. They have a severe inferiority complex.

These are the same dolts who thought this was a hoax, who say the media is driving a “panic”, who think Trump has been a wonderful manager during this pandemic, who call it a “Chinese” virus, and who think they are suddenly subject matter experts in Hydroxychloroquine (something they’ve never heard of up until 2 weeks ago)

They watch mind bending wing nut media that has convinced them that Facebook and YouTube bring forth the people’s truth and Actual factual news is fake. They are too far gone to have any meaningful conversation.

Sincerely,
Everyone else
Don't speak for me. You don't have that right. it's arrogant of you to think you can.

And Jim is not a doctor. Not even close.

In the end, I'm willing to bet the mouth breathers end up closer to the statistical truth than Fauci.

And please enough with the political rhetoric. Past flus have been labeled based on where they started and nobody cared.
If we end up lower end of the predictions means, people have taken the right measures. If we do everything right , we might end up in a situation where we all say “what was the fuzz all about”. I will gladly take that over being right. I hope I am wrong.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Anon.
80,000 American flu deaths over 6 months are okay. 3,175 Coronavirus deaths over 2.5 months are catastrophic. I got it. Now I see why you’re the genius and I’m the moron.
How can you be so stupid?

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Great post - specifically explaining the penetration of the virus and value of N. Unfortunately a target rich environment of uninflected hosts will exist for some time before it becomes a barrier to spreading. Quarantines will help. Ultimately we are all in this together. I know looking at our family schedule is somewhat sad as so many tryouts and spring sports are just empty placeholders. My two boys were looking forward to this weekends CCM high performance camp tryouts for months. Nope. More serious issues at hand.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

just sayin
ToldUso
Look at the MA numbers, then look up the definition of exponential, stupid.
It appears you are confusing multiplying, say doubling 2 4 8 16 (which it seems to be doing every week)
With exponential: as in a X to the Y power --- 2 4 16 256 65,536...
Jeez...first it was health advice I was getting from the dBoard, now I'm getting math lessons...isn't the dBoard great? :joy:

Talk about online schooling!

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Don’t forget grandpa asking us to rank the teams from the olden days, that’s a full day of homeschooling subjects right there.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

2,417 today. Increased by seven hundred cases each of the past two days. at this pace we will blow past 15,000 cases will before tax day. is that poster who wanted to make a bet still interested in betting? I wouldn't take the BET anyway. I just want everyone to realize how serious this is and to be safe. It is still following a predictive model

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Jim M
2,417 today. Increased by seven hundred cases each of the past two days. at this pace we will blow past 15,000 cases will before tax day. is that poster who wanted to make a bet still interested in betting? I wouldn't take the BET anyway. I just want everyone to realize how serious this is and to be safe. It is still following a predictive model
You're right, of course. The predictive model that tells us more than 150,000 cases by April 15th and that the virus will have been confirmed in every man, woman and child in the state less than two weeks after that.

Of course, I have a hard time putting much stock in someone that thinks 679 (yesterday's new cases as reported in this thread) and 579 (today) are actually more than 700. I may need to get new batteries for my calculator.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Rounding estimates. Still will surpass a number that was mocked just 6 days ago. The message should be the same. Distance and practice sound hand hygiene. It will slow but not for awhile. The 579 cases today were infected 10-14 days ago

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

Jim M
Rounding estimates. Still will surpass a number that was mocked just 6 days ago. The message should be the same. Distance and practice sound hand hygiene. It will slow but not for awhile. The 579 cases today were infected 10-14 days ago
Wow, you have a real issue with admitting you're wrong, don't you?

Yeah, I round up by 20% all the time.

Bet your wife rounds up by even more than that when she talks with her girlfriends.

Oh and the incubation period is 2 to 14 days, not 10 - 14 days, with a median of 5.5 days, according to one study. To help you out, "median" is a point of central tendency. It means the incubation period was shorter than 5.5 days in as many cases as it was longer than 5.5 days.

Re: Coronavirus (Covid-19) models (Organizations with tryouts should read)

You're such a frigging ******* troll. Seriously. Keyboard warrior trying so hard to focus on the micro missing the macro. Not sure where you've been along this now almost two weeks long discussion but the macro is correct. Those of you dismissing this or saying the predictions were nothing but an over reaction - WRONG. Day 1 I followed the CDC predictive model. Nuance changes and fluctuations will always occur but the bottom line is unchanged. 15,000 cases in MA by tax day with 1-3% fatalities. ICUs are beginning to be overrun. Do you even know a medical professional? Ask them. Good god, you're such a ***** who will surely get the beat down he deserves. I have zero issue admitting being wrong. Look back to the beginning of this thread and see wherever you posted. This is a train. Not slowing. I'll check out now and hop back by the 15th. I hope *******s like you take the medical and scientific advice seriously. I would hate to waste my healthcare resources or time if you were my patient. Others who made the effort to protect themselves and not minimize this deserve and will receive my care. ****** Oh, and I've quarantined myself from my wife and three children because of the risk seeing patients all day long and fear of infecting them. Leave them out of this. *****